expected Ironman Arizona finishing times

My expected Ironman Arizona finishing times are:

The 2.4 mile swim: I have no clue!
Expected: Perhaps 1:40 minutes.
Hoping for: 1:35.
I was swimming for a couple months with the Santa Fe HITS masters swim club. My endurance improved, I could swim longer without getting tired, but I never felt like my speed improved. I need to get some swim lessons.

The 112 mile bike:
Expected: 8 hours.
Hoping for: 7:20.
On my tank of a bike I suspect I’ll only maintain a 14 mph pace, 15 mph at best.

The 26.2 mile run:
Expected: 4 hours 20 minutes.
Hoping for: sub 4 hours.
My long distance running is at an all time best. Even if my legs are trashed from pushing around my incredibly heavy road bike for 112 miles I should still be able to maintain a 10 minute per mile pace.

Finish time:
Expected: 13 hours 50 minutes which would give me a PR by 47 minutes!
Hoping for sub 13 hours!